How to find where you pay for clicks you already rank for
The queries where the site holds strong organic positions and buys ads anyway, sized in spend, so the incrementality conversation has numbers.
IntentQuantify the overlap between paid and organic search, and separate defensible spend from probable substitution.
- 4
- Steps
- 4
- Tools
- 3
- Rules
- 3
- Failure modes
When to use it
Use it when
- Brand campaigns consuming meaningful budget.
- CFO or client asks the classic question: why do we pay for our own name?
- After organic gains on commercial terms.
Do not use it when
- Sites with weak organic presence: no overlap to find.
- As a substitute for an incrementality test: this sizes the question, only a holdout answers it.
What it needs first
Required
Preconditions
- Both sources connected and ticked for the same site and market.
- 90 days of data on both for stable positions.
Inputs
window- Analysis window.Default: last 90 days.
Procedure
In order. Every tool named is one the gateway ships, and links to its reference.
Pull the combined paid and organic view from Google Ads.
Pull organic positions and CTR by query from Search Console.
Classify overlap queries: brand, category with position 1-3, category below, competitor terms.
Size paid spend per class over the window.
Decision rules
The observable condition, what it lets you conclude, and what takes the conclusion back.
When
Non-brand queries with organic position 1-2 carry paid spend
Conclude
Highest substitution risk; size it and propose a holdout test, not an immediate cut.
When
Brand queries show competitor ads in the auction
Conclude
Defensive spend is justified; report the presence as the reason.
When
Organic position for an overlapped query is 4-10
Conclude
Paid is doing real work there; keep, and note the SEO opportunity instead.
Evidence every conclusion must carry
- Every class carries query count, paid spend, average organic position, both-source clicks.
- No incrementality percentage is asserted anywhere: the skill sizes exposure, the test measures it.
Where the agent stops
- Pausing brand or overlap spend is a strategy decision with revenue risk; the skill proposes the test design, humans decide.
- Any pause executed later goes through Safe Writes.
How it goes wrong quietly
The cases where the analysis is wrong and still looks right. Read them before trusting a number.
- Search Console and Google Ads bucket queries differently; join on normalised queries and state the match rate.
- Seasonal organic volatility reshuffles positions; a 7-day read produces false substitution findings.
- Cutting brand spend shows organic clicks rising and total clicks falling in many tested cases; never promise the saving equals the spend.
What the answer contains
- 01Overlap map
- Classes, spend, positions, click totals.
- 02Test design
- The holdout proposal: scope, duration, success metric.
- 03SEO handoffs
- Queries where the cheaper fix is ranking better, not bidding.