# How to review Google Ads bid strategies with simulations

> Tier: deep. Full contract: quantified decision rules and evidence requirements.

What each bid strategy is doing, what Google's own simulations say a change would do, and where targets fight the budget.

**Intent.** Judge bid strategies on the platform's own counterfactuals instead of folklore, and find the strategies working against their budgets.

## When to use

- Quarterly, or when CPA/ROAS targets moved.
- Campaigns limited by budget or by bid strategy flags.
- Before switching bidding modes on meaningful spend.

## When not to use

- Fresh strategies still learning: simulations there extrapolate noise.
- Tiny campaigns: simulations need volume to exist at all.

## Sources

Required: Google Ads

## Preconditions

- Campaigns with automated bidding and enough history for simulations to be generated.

## Inputs

- `scope`: Campaigns to review. Default: all automated-bidding campaigns above median spend.

## Procedure

1. Map strategies: type, target, attached campaigns. — tools: `google_ads_get_bidding_strategies`
2. Read performance against each strategy's own target. — tools: `google_ads_get_insights`, `google_ads_get_campaigns`
3. Pull the simulations: what target or budget changes would trade. — tools: `google_ads_get_simulations`
4. Cross with budgets to find strategies throttled by money rather than targets. — tools: `google_ads_get_budgets`

## Decision rules

- **When** A campaign hits its target CPA but is limited by budget, and the simulation shows volume at flat CPA → **conclude** The constraint is the budget, not the strategy: quantify the forgone volume from the simulation.
- **When** The simulation shows steeply rising CPA for more volume → **conclude** The strategy is at the efficient frontier; more volume is a price decision, present the curve.
- **When** Target CPA sits far below what the campaign has ever achieved → **conclude** The target throttles delivery: the strategy obeys a number nobody meant literally; propose the simulated realistic target.

## Evidence requirements

- Every recommendation quotes the simulation's own points, not extrapolation beyond them.
- Strategy performance is judged against its own target, stated.

## Human approval boundary

- Target changes are strategy decisions; budget changes route through budget-reallocation and Safe Writes.
- Mode switches (manual to auto, auto to manual) are proposed with their learning-phase cost stated, never applied.

## Failure modes

- Simulations reflect the recent auction; they expire fast and say nothing about next month.
- Portfolio strategies aggregate campaigns; judging one member campaign alone misreads the portfolio's optimisation.
- Seasonal simulations (generated during a peak) overstate what a normal week can buy.

## Output

- **Strategy map**: Type, target, campaigns, performance vs target.
- **Simulation findings**: The trade-off curves that matter, read out.
- **Proposals**: Target and budget changes, each with its simulated effect.

## Related

- Skill: [budget-reallocation](https://www.getmcpads.com/skills/budget-reallocation.md)
- Skill: [account-audit](https://www.getmcpads.com/skills/account-audit.md)
- Guide: [campaign-audit](https://www.getmcpads.com/guides/campaign-audit.md)